Week 10 Power Rankings
We have OFFICIALLY reached the midway point in the 2022 regular season (9 weeks complete out of 18), hard to believe this timepoint is already upon us. The unpredictability of the league continues to make it great. Teams that were seen as front runners in the offseason like the defending Super Bowl Chanpion Rams, the Bucs, and the Packers all have more losses than wins and will need to scramble to make the playoffs while teams with low expectations like the Giants, Jets, and Seahawks would be playoff teams if the season ended today. Much has changed since the last edition of power rankings back between weeks 2 and 3, and we'll identify who has improved, who has declined, and who's staying pat. With half a season behind us, teams have a more clear understanding of where they stand, with some primed to make a playoff and maybe even Super Bowl push and others cutting their losses and beginning to build for next season.
Let's do a quick refresher of how making the playoffs works, seeing as much of these power rankings discuss the playoff chances of the teams. There are 14 teams that will qualify for the playoffs, 7 from the AFC, 7 from the NFC. For each conference, this consists of 4 division winners (the team with the best win/loss record in each division) and three wild cards (the three teams with the best win/loss records who did not win their division). Division winners get spots 1-4 and get home playoff games in the first round. The team at #1 gets a first round bye, an automatic pass to round 2. The Wild Card teams must play on the road in round 1. This is what that would look like if it ended today:
AFC:
1. Buffalo Bills (6-2, AFC East division winner)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, AFC West division winner)
3. Baltimore Ravens (6-3, AFC North division winner)
4. Tennessee Titans (5-3, AFC South division winner)
5. New York Jets (6-3, Wild Card #1)
6. Miami Dolphins (6-3, Wild Card #2)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3, Wild Card #3)
NFC:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-0, NFC East division winner)
2. Minnesota Vikings (7-1, NFC North division winner)
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-3, NFC West division winner)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5, NFC South division winner)
5. Dallas Cowboys (6-2, Wild Card #1)
6. New York Giants (6-2, Wild Card #2)
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-4, Wild Card #3)
So once again, we rank em from 32 all the way to 1 and place them in the same tiers as last time. So let's get into it!
Tier 1: Better Luck Next Year
#32. Houston Texans (1-6-1) Week 3 Rank: 29 Trend: Down 3
After a week 1 tie, Houston has lost 6 of its last 7 and finds itself owners of the worst win/loss record in football. Despite that, the group has competed well in the past couple weeks. They were tied with the undefeated Eagles at halftime of last week's game and only lost to the Titans by 7 the week before that. The effort is there, but it's a roster that still needs more talent and difference makers. The good news? Houston currently is in line for the #1 pick in the NFL Draft, where they can begin their rebuild, probably with a new QB
#31. Carolina Panthers (2-7) Week 3 Rank: 30 Trend: Down 1This is another team clearly waving the white flag on it's 2022 campaign. They fired head coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start and traded away their best player, RB Christian McCaffrey, to the 49ers for a package of draft picks to help them start over. Despite that, the team actually finds themselves only 2 games behind first place in the division which includes the Bucs/Falcons leading at 4-5. So Carolina isn't completely out of it, but their moves and staff changes suggest that they aren't interested in making a push for the division and a playoff appearance this year and are more interested in hitting the reset button and building for the future.
#30. Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1) Week 3 Rank: 27 Trend: Down 3
On Monday morning, the Colts joined the Panthers and became the 2nd team to fire their head coach, dismissing Frank Reich after 5 seasons. The Colts had exhausted every option. They had fired/switched coordinators, they had rotated many different starting QBs, and they were just unable to find the right solution to make the team competitive. Like Carolina, they only sit 2 games out of the division lead (the 5-3 Titans), but they too seem to be throwing in the towel on their season and beginning to prepare for next year.
#29. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6) Week 3 Rank: 24 Trend: Down 5
The Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003, a truly impressive streak because of it's longevity, but this appears to be the year that it's finally going to come to an end. They hold a pair of surprising wins against the Bengals and Bucs but that's it. This is a team still searching for an answer at the QB position following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger last season, and the remainder of the year is all about evaluating rookie QB Kenny Pickett and seeing if he can be that person, or if that draft pick was a mistake and they need to try again.
#28. Detroit Lions (2-6)
Week 3 Rank: 20 Trend: Down 8
In my last power rankings, I began my assessment of the 20th ranked Lions with "perhaps I'm sipping the kool-aid from HBO's Hard Knocks". Well, hindsight is 20/20 and I think I can admit my flaws and say that I was buying into that hype more than I should have. Still, I'm placing them ahead of teams like Indianapolis and Pittsburgh due to an impressive win against a struggling Packers team last weekend. Unlike some of those teams already mentioned, this is a team that does play with pride and grit and wants to improve it's record and narrative. But it's a rebuild still very much in process.
#27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) Week 3 Rank: 15 Trend: Down 12
There's a reason the Raiders are the highest ranked of the teams with 2 or less wins. They have, on 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, blown a lead of 17 points or more. If the Raiders were just capable of hanging on to win those games where they build large leads, they'd be sitting at 5-3 right now, and have an entirely different outlook and goals in mind. Heck this was a playoff team last year, one that pushed the Super Bowl runner up Bengals to the brink. But barring a late season charge, the Raiders will be watching the playoffs from home this year.
Tier II: Playoff Chances Fading
#26. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)Week 3 Rank: 22 Trend: Down 4
A 2-1 start had Jacksonville buzzing and wondering if this was a team that was ahead of schedule and would contend for its division and a playoff spot, but then the Jags proceeded to lose 5 straight and find themselves toward the bottom of the league yet again. The two pieces of good news: #1, Jacksonville has already matched it's win total from last year (they went 3-14) and has 8 games left to surpass it. #2, Jacksonville is coming off a comeback win against the aforementioned Raiders last weekend. The Jaguars remain a work in progress but I still firmly believe this year's team is much improved from last year and there's still reason for optimism as the young core continues to develop.
#25. New Orleans Saints (3-6) Week 3 Rank: 18 Trend: Down 7
They're in this tier because they're only a game behind Tampa and Atlanta in the NFC South division, but it's not a team I'm overly impressed by or hopeful for. When QB Jameis Winston got injured, the team made the switch to Andy Dalton, and continued to ride with him even once Winston was healthy again. Through Dalton's first 5 games, the team averaged nearly 30 points per game, but struggled last week only scoring 13 against Baltimore. It's possible the team makes the switch back if Dalton continues to cool off after his red hot start, hoping a change would provide a spark that could help them stay in the mix for the division.
Week 3 Ranking: 26 Trend: Up 2
Consider this a super super super slightly better version of Jacksonville: a team in year 2 of a rebuild with a young QB at the helm. They get a slightly higher ranking because said QB, Justin Fields of Ohio State, has flashed some reallllll potential over the last 3 games. Look at last week specifically: 4 total touchdowns last weekend, an NFL single-game record for rushing yards by a QB, and a competitive 3 point loss to a talented Dolphins team. The Field's led offense has point totals of 33, 29, and 32 over the last 3 weeks, which should be enough to win games in the NFL, but the defense has done them no favors and left them 1-2 in this stretch. The reality is the team needs to continue to be built around the young QB but the good news is the Bears appear to have the most important piece of the puzzle in place.
#23. Green Bay Packers (3-6) Week 3 Rank: 7 Trend: Down 16
Is there a bigger disappointment thus far?? This is a team in absolute free fall, losing 5 in a row after a promising 3-1 start. Aaron Rodgers looks unmotivated and checked out and ready for retirement. There's no supporting cast but that's largely because Rodgers requested $50 MILLION to come back for 1 more year and that left the cupboard bare to bring in anybody else. Each week it gets progressively worse, with the latest development being a loss to the (at the time) 1-6 Lions, whom Rodgers and the Pack have owned for years. I'm leaving them in the "possible playoff team" for now, because there's still that semblance of belief that the back-to-back MVP could figure things out and get the team back on track, but the margin for error is getting thinner and thinner with each loss and it's officially time to hit the panic button.
#22. Arizona Cardinals (3-6)Week 3 Rank: 13 Trend: Down 9
Injuries (WR Marquise Brown, RB James Connor) and suspensions (WR DeAndre Hopkins) have kept the Cardinals from reaching their full potential. QB Kyler Murray can carry them to a certain extent, but he needs the supporting cast on the field to win more games and make a true playoff push. I'm cutting them a little more slack due to being without some of their key guys but like the other 3-6 teams above them the margin for error is getting slimmer by the week.
#21. Cleveland Browns (3-5) Week 3 Rank: 16 Trend: Down 5
The Browns made a big splash in the offseason trading for QB DeShaun Watson, a talented player but controversial figure. Watson's good play on the field has been shadowed by more than 20 sexual assault allegations from misuses at massage parlors he visited. The NFL assessed Watson an 11 game suspension for his actions. This has forced Cleveland to turn to backup QB Jacoby Brissett to bridge the gap during Watson's suspension. He has been okay, bring Cleveland to a 3-5 record to this point. He's been largely helped by the strong play of RB Nick Chubb and strong play of the defense. I project them finishing behind Baltimore and Cincinnati in the division, but if the Browns can reach the end of Watson's suspension with close to an equivalent number of wins and losses, then Cleveland may have an outside chance of making the playoffs as a wild card.
#20. Denver Broncos (3-5)Week 3 Rank: 9 Trend: Down 11
In the offseason the Broncos traded for long-time Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, believing that was the missing piece to making themselves a Super Bowl contender. But the transition thus far has been a challenging one with the offense struggling to score points. There's still faith here that this improves as Wilson continues to develop chemistry and rapport with his new teammates and thus I think it's still too early to give up on them. But 3-5 is not where this team envisioned being at this point in the season, and there is work to be done to play themselves back into the playoff hunt.
Tier III: In the Playoff Hunt
#19. LA Rams (3-5) Week 3 Rank: 8 Trend: Down 11
Talk about a stunner! The reigning Super Bowl Champs all the way down at 19 and having much work to do just to earn a playoff spot! This team had a win in hand last weekend before Brady brought Tampa back from the dead in the final seconds and set the Rams back to 3-5. The defense looks strong but the offense is struggling mightily. Only 13 points in the Tampa game and 7 of that came off the blown coverage long touchdown to Cooper Kupp. The reality is....being the defending Super Bowl Champs is hard. Everyone circles the game against you on their calendar and gives you their biggest fight. And it's easy to become complacent and not want it as badly when you won it the year prior. The NFL hasn't seen a team win back to back championships since the Patriots wayyy back in 2003 & 2004. The Rams will have to play better down the stretch to make the playoffs and have a shot at it.
#18. Washington Commanders (4-5) Week 3 Rank: 25 Trend: Up 7
It's been an up and down year the newly named Commanders. They won the opener against Jacksonville, then proceeded to lose 4 straight, then won 3 in a row, and then lost to a strong Vikings team last weekend who rallied from a 10 point deficit to win. Despite the loss, the Commanders played well in that game, and have been playing good football for 4 straight games. They have a tall task this week though, at Philadelphia on Monday Night Football.
#17. Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
Week 3 Rank: 32 Trend: Up 15
The Falcons went from dead last in my power rankings to a potential playoff team and tied atop the NFC South with the Bucs. And 4 of the 5 losses are incredibly lose, 1 point to New Orleans, 4 points to the Rams, 6 points to Tampa, and 3 points last weekend to the Chargers. The Falcons are much better than initially expected and seem primed to contend with Tampa for the NFC South.
#16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) Week 3 rank: 3 Trend: Down 13
Stop me if you've heard this one before..."Tom Brady engineers near-impossible last second game winning drive". After 59 minutes of frustration and ineptness, the GOAT led the Bucs on a game winning drive against the Super Bowl Champs as Tampa got sweet revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. The Bucs were desperate for a win, having lost 3 straight including head-scratching losses to Carolina and Pittsburgh, but they got one. Even if it was by the hair on their chinny chin chin. But maybe...just maybe...that's the kind of emotional confidence boosting win that can put the Bucs back on the right path as they try to win the division and return to the playoffs.
#15. New England Patriots (5-4) Week 3 Rank: 17 Trend: Up 2
One spot ahead of Tom Brady we find his former team. The good news: the Pats have a winning record. The bad news: despite that they're still last in there division (Bills, Dolphins, Jets). The Pats' success has been fueled by a strong running game and a strong defense, just the formula they need to win those cold windy Massachusetts games in December and January. This team doesn't have the explosiveness of a Buffalo or Kansas City, but it's fundamentally sound and well coached and finds itself in the mix.
Tier IV: Dark Horses
#14. New York Giants (6-2) Week 3 Rank: 19 Trend: Up 5
One of 2022's biggest and most pleasant surprises, the Giants boast an impressive 6-2 record at the season's midway point. Much like the Patriots, the Giants get it done with great defense and an elite running back in Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the NFL to this point. The caveat is Barkley is the only consistent offensive threat, as the Giants struggle to pass the ball. Still, the two Giant teams of my childhood that won the Super Bowl did it with just that: a strong rushing attack and great defense. As aforementioned it's a formula that wins games in cold windy or even snowy conditions. With the next 2 games coming against the Texans and Lions, and both at home, 8-2 is VERY realistic.
#13. New York Jets (6-3)
Week 3 Rank: 28 Trend: Up 15Both the New York teams are massively overachieving thus far. The Jets surprising turnaround is largely due to it's vastly improved defense. Which ranked dead last in the NFL last season but currently ranks 7th this year. The win over Buffalo on Sunday turned many heads, and shifted people's opinions that perhaps the Jets are serious contenders. As aforementioned, this is a tough division with Buffalo, Miami, and New England, but they're right there and a wild card remains a legitimate possibility.
#12. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) Week 3 Rank: 6 Trend: Down 6
The Chargers have dealt with injuries, most notably at Wide Receiver, yet still manage to find themselves 5-3 at the midway point. It's a team that should get even better as those players get healthier. They've been able to sustain good play with a great QB in Justin Herbert, a great RB in Austin Ekeler, and a strong defense.
#11. Tennessee Titans (5-3) Pre-Season Rank: 23 Trend: Up 12
It was a rocky start at 0-2, but then the Titans found their groove, winning 5 straight and nearly knocking off Kansas City on the road last week before the Cheifs came from behind to win in overtime. Even without it's starting QB, this team is well coached and plays hard and is in line to win its division. It rides RB Derrick Henry like a horse and plays great defense (I guess good running backs and defense are a common theme in this area of the rankings).
Tier V: Super Bowl Contenders
#10. San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
Week 3 Rank: 10 Trend: No Change
If you remember wayyyy back to the Panthers section, the 49ers made a splash trade to acquire RB Christian McCaffrey. He's right there with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley as the NFL's best running backs. He's a vital piece to a 49ers offense that's already loaded with great pass catchers and San Francico also has a very good defense. How far the 49ers can go comes down to QB Jimmy Garopolo, a long time back up to Brady in New England before getting the chance to lead his own team in San Fran. And he has done well....got them to a Super Bowl 3 years ago which they lost to Kansas City and got them to the final 4 last season before losing to the Rams. They have an equal number of wins and losses but this is a team capable of making moves.
#9. Seattle Seahawks (6-3) Week 3 Rank: 31 Trend: Up 22 The biggest mover on the entire list belongs to the Seattle Seahawks! A team no one had high expectations but one that now leads the NFC West and has a 6-3 record. This was a bottom 2 or 3 team by most expert's standards, and boy were we wrong. There are a number of people who deserve credit: Pete Carrol has coached them incredibly well, Geno Smith has been much better than advertised at QB, rookie RB Kenneth Walker has exceeded expectations, the defense is better than we all foresaw. It will be interesting to see if they can hold off the 49ers and the Rams for the division in the 2nd half of the season.
#8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
Week 3 Rank: 14 Trend: Up 6
Like the Titans, a team that started 0-2 but then really hit its stride. The Joe Burrow led offense is firing on all cylinders and putting up big numbers on a regular basis, sans that Halloween night hic-up to the Browns. But 5 wins in the last 7 games has the Super Bowl runner-ups feeling better these days and it should be a tight race between them and the Ravens in the AFC North.
#7. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)Week 3 Rank: 21 Trend: Up 14
You could feel the state of Texas collectively hold it's breath when QB Dak Prescott had to exit the 4th quarter of the Tampa game with a fracture on his throwing hand. Had the Cowboys season already ended when it had barely began? Fortunately, it had not. Cooper Rush played admirably while Prescott healed, only losing 1 game in that span. While Rush played well, Prescott is still the better option when healthy. Now that he is, the Cowboys look like a force, on both offense and defense. The high-flying Eagles (pun-intended) still have a leg up on the division but there's a good shot Dallas finishes as the highest ranked wild card team.
#6. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) Week 3 Rank: 10 Trend: Up 4
The Ravens already look good at 6-3 and leading their division, but they are a few plays away from being 9-0 at this moment. They blew a large 4th quarter lead to the Dolphins in week 2, squandered a similar lead to the Giants, and rolled the dice in a gamble that did not pay off against a strong Buffalo team. Still, it's won 3 straight and leads the AFC North. QB Lamar Jackson is a legitimate MVP candidate right there with Patrick Mahomes, Bills QB Josh Allen, and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts.
Week 3 Rank: 5 Trend: No Change
The Dolphins did not leave a single penny unspent in the offseason, going all-in to improve the team and turn it into a true contender. They appear to have succeeded in that goal. One very telling stat, the only 3 games the team has lost came when QB Tua Tagavailoa was unable to play due to that scary concussion suffered in the Bengals game that sent the league into an uproar. That means they're 6-0 in the games Tua starts and finishes. When he plays, this offense is as explosive and electric as any of them, including the Bills and Chiefs. The defense needs improvement for Miami's Super Bowl aspirations to become a reality.
#4. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) Week 3 Rank: 11 Trend: Up 7
Everyone is talking about Philly, Buffalo, Kansas City and quietly Minnesota is sitting right there at 7-1. And no one is talking about it. It's almost assuredly going to have its division locked up in early December (it's far ahead of the Packers, Bears, and Lions) and might be the Eagles' biggest competition in the NFC. This could be the darkest of the dark horses.
Tier VI: The Super Bowl Favorites
#3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) Week 3 rank: 3 Trend: Down 1
The Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles are the 3 that have separated themselves from the pack. I have Kansas City ranked the lowest of that trio because they have a loss at home to Buffalo and aren't undefeated like the Eagles. That being said, Patrick Mahomes is still one of the league's ultimate Trump Cards, maybe even the best QB. With him at the helm, the Chiefs are very much alive in the Super Bowl mix.
Week 3 rank: 1 Trend: Down 1
The Bills entered the season as the team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, and they remain right there. The AFC most likely comes down to them and Kansas City, with the winner most likely getting Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Doesn't mean it will work out that way, this is the NFL and upsets happen regularly, but those are the 3 favorites at this point. The Bills avenged last years heart-breaking playoff loss in the final 13 seconds to Kansas City, and did so in Kansas City's home stadium. They're capable of doing it again, but beating such a great team twice is a difficult task. This franchise craves a Super Bowl. It went to 4 straight in the 90s and lost all of them and still doesn't have one. It's Super Bowl or bust for this group.
#1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-0) Last Week Rank: 4 Trend: Up 3
The most balanced team, at this moment right now, is the Philadelphia Eagles. They have a great QB. They run the ball well. They have excellent pass catchers. They're o-line protects the QB well and creates holes in the running game. The defense is maybe the best in the league. They're well coached. They even kick and punt well. This team has all the ingredients that the Super Bowl recipe requires. That's why they're 8-0. And until they lose, they deserve the top spot in these power rankings. There is not a flaw on the resume. Do I think they finish undefeated? No. Someone will trip them up eventually. But what matters is winning the last game of the season, the Super Bowl, and the Eagles have positioned themselves to do that.
P.S. I love you so much Sarena!
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